Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.486437 0.566132 0.652044 0.751217 0.862205 0.982250 1.121564
2025-03-23 0.372741 0.476958 0.597685 0.746638 0.924164 1.127630 1.377034
2025-03-30 0.266805 0.376877 0.514116 0.694966 0.923919 1.200888 1.557705
2025-04-06 0.196716 0.307704 0.456758 0.666242 0.947083 1.304212 1.785428
2025-04-13 0.142406 0.248479 0.402473 0.633508 0.961226 1.398429 2.012932
2025-04-20 0.109202 0.212389 0.373954 0.631687 1.016612 1.552561 2.334161
2025-04-27 0.081470 0.178098 0.341900 0.620039 1.057194 1.691597 2.649810
2025-05-04 0.062568 0.153881 0.321234 0.622797 1.119735 1.868506 3.035427
2025-05-11 0.047382 0.132024 0.300151 0.621640 1.176410 2.042876 3.433569
2025-05-18 0.032722 0.105773 0.264995 0.590303 1.180511 2.138255 3.723660
2025-05-25 0.021528 0.082383 0.229236 0.551021 1.165687 2.202249 3.971409
2025-06-01 0.015357 0.068966 0.210933 0.541791 1.202334 2.352915 4.367110
2025-06-08 0.010297 0.055963 0.190461 0.525993 1.228487 2.494725 4.770764
2025-06-15 0.007744 0.049781 0.185202 0.542314 1.318824 2.756449 5.393889
2025-06-22 0.004809 0.039188 0.164155 0.518354 1.326419 2.873284 5.783526
2025-06-29 0.003096 0.032091 0.150398 0.508768 1.362369 3.045271 6.281696
2025-07-06 0.001867 0.025624 0.135637 0.493087 1.383114 3.190934 6.744728
2025-07-13 0.001259 0.022196 0.129974 0.500572 1.456231 3.442913 7.414852
2025-07-20 0.000779 0.018547 0.121574 0.498372 1.507000 3.655586 8.027541
2025-07-27 0.000505 0.016139 0.117116 0.506985 1.584731 3.928694 8.769547
2025-08-03 0.000308 0.013815 0.111672 0.511291 1.652681 4.187302 9.499857
2025-08-10 0.000141 0.010573 0.099125 0.488790 1.650173 4.299171 9.957019
2025-08-17 0.000051 0.007689 0.085632 0.458446 1.622319 4.354238 10.306846